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9 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 20.1 xG (0.94 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge Aue 1–2 Hansa Rostock | 0.92–1.34 | 26% · 28% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Hansa Rostock |
| TSV 1860 München 2–3 SV Wehen | 1.41–1.11 | 44% · 27% · 30% | Close call, SV Wehen won |
| SV Sandhausen 2–1 Waldhof Mannheim | 2.30–0.18 | 86% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for SV Sandhausen |
| Rot-Weiß Essen 2–1 FC Viktoria Köln | 1.48–1.04 | 47% · 26% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Rot-Weiß Essen |
| Verl 2–0 SpVgg Unterhaching | 1.80–0.63 | 66% · 22% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Verl |
| Alemannia Aachen 1–1 FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1.20–0.49 | 54% · 31% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Alemannia Aachen had 54% |
| Hannover 96 II 0–0 Energie Cottbus | 1.94–0.81 | 64% · 21% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Hannover 96 II had 64% |
| FC Saarbrücken 0–0 Arminia Bielefeld | 1.04–0.51 | 48% · 34% · 18% | Draw in line with xG |
| VfL Osnabrück 1–0 Stuttgart II | 1.31–0.60 | 54% · 29% · 17% | Win in line with xG for VfL Osnabrück |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.