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9 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 31.3 xG (0.90 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rot-Weiß Essen 1–1 Stuttgart II | 1.99–2.51 | 31% · 19% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| Energie Cottbus 3–2 MSV Duisburg | 1.56–0.78 | 56% · 25% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Energie Cottbus |
| Hoffenheim II 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg | 2.08–2.09 | 40% · 20% · 40% | Close call, Hoffenheim II won |
| Havelse 2–2 Verl | 2.11–1.67 | 48% · 21% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| VfL Osnabrück 0–1 SV Wehen | 1.39–0.46 | 60% · 28% · 12% | Won against the xG: SV Wehen |
| TSV 1860 München 3–1 FC Schweinfurt 05 | 1.77–0.99 | 56% · 23% · 21% | Win in line with xG for TSV 1860 München |
| Waldhof Mannheim 2–1 FC Saarbrücken | 2.48–0.60 | 79% · 14% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Waldhof Mannheim |
| Hansa Rostock 2–2 Alemannia Aachen | 4.15–1.35 | 84% · 9% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Hansa Rostock had 84% |
| Erzgebirge Aue 2–2 FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1.71–1.57 | 41% · 23% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.