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9 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 28.8 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Viktoria Köln 2–0 FC Saarbrücken | 1.79–2.56 | 27% · 19% · 55% | Won against the xG: FC Viktoria Köln |
| Erzgebirge Aue 0–3 SSV Ulm 1846 | 0.99–2.01 | 18% · 21% · 61% | Win in line with xG for SSV Ulm 1846 |
| Energie Cottbus 2–1 FC Schweinfurt 05 | 1.27–1.84 | 26% · 23% · 51% | Won against the xG: Energie Cottbus |
| Hoffenheim II 2–3 Alemannia Aachen | 2.52–1.55 | 59% · 19% · 23% | Won against the xG: Alemannia Aachen |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 Stuttgart II | 1.39–1.58 | 34% · 24% · 42% | Close call, FC Ingolstadt 04 won |
| Rot-Weiß Essen 4–1 Havelse | 2.14–2.33 | 37% · 19% · 44% | Close call, Rot-Weiß Essen won |
| Waldhof Mannheim 0–4 Hansa Rostock | 0.74–1.94 | 13% · 21% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Hansa Rostock |
| VfL Osnabrück 1–1 TSV 1860 München | 0.67–0.98 | 24% · 34% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| SV Wehen 2–1 Verl | 1.14–1.37 | 31% · 27% · 42% | Close call, SV Wehen won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.