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9 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 29.5 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Havelse 3–1 Erzgebirge Aue | 2.14–1.01 | 63% · 20% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Havelse |
| Energie Cottbus 3–1 Hoffenheim II | 3.97–1.71 | 77% · 11% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Energie Cottbus |
| Hansa Rostock 0–3 FC Ingolstadt 04 | 2.30–0.61 | 76% · 16% · 8% | Won against the xG: FC Ingolstadt 04 |
| TSV 1860 München 2–2 Alemannia Aachen | 1.41–2.04 | 26% · 21% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Alemannia Aachen had 52% |
| FC Saarbrücken 0–1 VfL Osnabrück | 2.98–0.72 | 83% · 11% · 6% | Won against the xG: VfL Osnabrück |
| FC Viktoria Köln 1–3 Waldhof Mannheim | 0.28–1.31 | 8% · 29% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Waldhof Mannheim |
| FC Schweinfurt 05 0–1 SSV Jahn Regensburg | 0.90–1.49 | 23% · 26% · 51% | Win in line with xG for SSV Jahn Regensburg |
| SSV Ulm 1846 1–0 MSV Duisburg | 1.13–1.34 | 31% · 27% · 42% | Close call, SSV Ulm 1846 won |
| Verl 4–0 Stuttgart II | 2.67–1.47 | 63% · 17% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Verl |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.