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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 30.6 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Viktoria Köln 0–1 TSV 1860 München | 0.70–0.65 | 32% · 39% · 29% | Close call, TSV 1860 München won |
| Erzgebirge Aue 1–3 Alemannia Aachen | 1.92–0.95 | 60% · 22% · 18% | Won against the xG: Alemannia Aachen |
| Energie Cottbus 0–0 Hansa Rostock | 0.29–1.26 | 8% · 30% · 62% | Draw against the xG: Hansa Rostock had 62% |
| Hoffenheim II 2–4 Rot-Weiß Essen | 2.03–3.75 | 17% · 13% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Rot-Weiß Essen |
| FC Schweinfurt 05 3–2 SSV Ulm 1846 | 1.95–2.29 | 34% · 20% · 46% | Close call, FC Schweinfurt 05 won |
| SV Wehen 2–1 Stuttgart II | 0.76–1.10 | 25% · 32% · 43% | Won against the xG: SV Wehen |
| SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–2 VfL Osnabrück | 0.70–1.15 | 22% · 31% · 46% | Win in line with xG for VfL Osnabrück |
| Waldhof Mannheim 3–1 Havelse | 4.90–0.84 | 94% · 4% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Waldhof Mannheim |
| MSV Duisburg 4–2 FC Saarbrücken | 1.80–0.87 | 59% · 23% · 18% | Win in line with xG for MSV Duisburg |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 Verl | 0.92–1.78 | 19% · 23% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Verl |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.