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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 29.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| SV Wehen 0–1 Hansa Rostock | 1.97–1.15 | 56% · 22% · 22% | Won against the xG: Hansa Rostock |
| Energie Cottbus 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846 | 1.30–0.70 | 51% · 29% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Energie Cottbus had 51% |
| FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 Alemannia Aachen | 0.63–2.18 | 9% · 18% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Alemannia Aachen |
| Waldhof Mannheim 2–1 Erzgebirge Aue | 1.75–1.16 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Waldhof Mannheim |
| SSV Jahn Regensburg 5–2 Havelse | 1.88–2.78 | 25% · 18% · 57% | Won against the xG: SSV Jahn Regensburg |
| FC Schweinfurt 05 3–1 Stuttgart II | 2.37–1.14 | 65% · 18% · 17% | Win in line with xG for FC Schweinfurt 05 |
| Verl 3–0 FC Saarbrücken | 1.55–0.53 | 62% · 25% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Verl |
| Hoffenheim II 0–1 VfL Osnabrück | 0.69–1.73 | 14% · 23% · 62% | Win in line with xG for VfL Osnabrück |
| MSV Duisburg 2–1 TSV 1860 München | 1.81–1.95 | 37% · 21% · 42% | Close call, MSV Duisburg won |
| FC Viktoria Köln 1–2 Rot-Weiß Essen | 1.35–1.11 | 42% · 27% · 31% | Close call, Rot-Weiß Essen won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.