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9 of 9 matches with xG: 24 goals from 27.4 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne 0–1 Werder Bremen | 0.80–1.73 | 17% · 23% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Werder Bremen |
| VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 Borussia Dortmund | 1.85–1.40 | 48% · 23% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mainz 05 1–0 FC Augsburg | 1.97–0.72 | 67% · 20% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| Hoffenheim 0–1 Union Berlin | 1.02–1.41 | 27% · 27% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Union Berlin |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen | 0.43–1.88 | 8% · 20% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| SV Darmstadt 98 1–2 VfB Stuttgart | 1.59–1.80 | 34% · 23% · 43% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
| RB Leipzig 2–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.75–0.75 | 61% · 23% · 16% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| SC Freiburg 3–3 Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.24–1.01 | 65% · 19% · 16% | Draw against the xG: SC Freiburg had 65% |
| VfL Bochum 3–2 Bayern Munich | 1.67–3.42 | 15% · 14% · 71% | Won against the xG: VfL Bochum |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.