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9 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 24.4 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen 0–0 VfB Stuttgart | 2.19–0.28 | 82% · 14% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Bayer Leverkusen had 82% |
| Bayern Munich 3–0 Union Berlin | 2.48–0.50 | 81% · 14% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 7–2 VfL Bochum | 3.53–1.79 | 70% · 14% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
| Hoffenheim 0–2 FC St. Pauli | 0.75–0.94 | 28% · 34% · 38% | Win in line with xG for FC St. Pauli |
| VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FC Augsburg | 1.24–0.43 | 57% · 30% · 13% | Draw against the xG: VfL Wolfsburg had 57% |
| Holstein Kiel 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.09–1.23 | 32% · 28% · 39% | Close call, Holstein Kiel won |
| Borussia Dortmund 2–1 RB Leipzig | 2.21–0.48 | 77% · 16% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
| SC Freiburg 0–0 Mainz 05 | 0.77–0.53 | 38% · 40% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–1 Werder Bremen | 2.46–1.46 | 59% · 19% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Mönchengladbach |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.