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6 of 7 matches with xG: 14 goals from 11.5 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerala Blasters 2–1 Odisha | 1.40–0.67 | 55% · 28% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Kerala Blasters |
| NorthEast United 0–2 Goa | 0.17–0.58 | 9% · 52% · 39% | Close call, Goa won |
| Bengaluru 0–0 Mumbai City | 0.42–0.72 | 19% · 42% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Jamshedpur 4–1 Chennaiyin | 1.35–0.79 | 50% · 28% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Jamshedpur |
| SC Delhi 2–2 Mohammedan | 2.43–1.11 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Draw against the xG: SC Delhi had 66% |
| ATK Mohun Bagan 0–0 Inter Kashi | 1.11–0.75 | 44% · 31% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.