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6 of 7 matches with xG: 18 goals from 11.6 xG (1.55 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Delhi 1–1 Jamshedpur | 0.45–0.84 | 19% · 39% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| NorthEast United 1–4 Odisha | 0.93–1.44 | 24% · 27% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Odisha |
| ATK Mohun Bagan 0–1 Mumbai City | 0.77–0.82 | 31% · 35% · 34% | Close call, Mumbai City won |
| Kerala Blasters 1–3 Minerva Punjab | 0.58–1.28 | 17% · 29% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Minerva Punjab |
| Chennaiyin 1–1 Goa | 1.00–1.37 | 27% · 27% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Inter Kashi 1–3 Bengaluru | 0.60–1.53 | 14% · 26% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Bengaluru |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.