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4 of 5 matches with xG: 11 goals from 9.9 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians 1–2 Sligo Rovers | 1.11–0.46 | 52% · 33% · 15% | Won against the xG: Sligo Rovers |
| Dundalk 2–2 Derry City | 2.42–1.20 | 64% · 18% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Dundalk had 64% |
| St Patrick's Athl. 0–1 Shamrock Rovers | 0.78–0.82 | 31% · 35% · 33% | Close call, Shamrock Rovers won |
| Waterford 2–1 Drogheda United | 1.71–1.38 | 45% · 24% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Waterford |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.