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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 25.5 xG (0.90 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa 1–0 Salernitana | 0.49–0.65 | 23% · 43% · 34% | Close call, Genoa won |
| Sassuolo 1–1 Bologna | 0.89–1.02 | 31% · 32% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Lecce 0–1 Torino | 0.49–0.78 | 21% · 40% · 39% | Close call, Torino won |
| Juventus 1–0 Hellas Verona | 3.37–0.31 | 93% · 6% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Cagliari 4–3 Frosinone | 3.63–1.46 | 77% · 12% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Cagliari |
| Monza 1–1 Udinese | 0.53–1.10 | 18% · 33% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| Inter 1–0 AS Roma | 2.30–0.14 | 87% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Napoli 2–2 AC Milan | 1.90–2.06 | 37% · 21% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Empoli 0–3 Atalanta | 0.35–1.65 | 7% · 23% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Lazio 1–0 Fiorentina | 2.00–0.41 | 75% · 18% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Lazio |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.