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10 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 21.9 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna 1–0 Lazio | 0.59–0.51 | 31% · 44% · 25% | Close call, Bologna won |
| Salernitana 0–2 Napoli | 0.30–1.39 | 8% · 27% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Atalanta 1–2 Inter | 1.04–1.35 | 29% · 27% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| AC Milan 0–1 Udinese | 0.87–1.43 | 23% · 27% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Udinese |
| Hellas Verona 1–3 Monza | 1.01–0.86 | 38% · 32% · 30% | Close call, Monza won |
| Cagliari 2–1 Genoa | 0.85–1.05 | 29% · 32% · 40% | Close call, Cagliari won |
| AS Roma 2–1 Lecce | 2.12–0.84 | 67% · 19% · 14% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
| Fiorentina 0–1 Juventus | 0.72–0.65 | 33% · 39% · 28% | Close call, Juventus won |
| Frosinone 2–1 Empoli | 0.83–1.53 | 20% · 26% · 54% | Won against the xG: Frosinone |
| Torino 2–1 Sassuolo | 3.49–0.47 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Torino |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.