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10 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 24.8 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo 2–2 Salernitana | 2.96–0.84 | 80% · 12% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Sassuolo had 80% |
| Genoa 1–0 Hellas Verona | 1.71–0.24 | 75% · 21% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Genoa |
| Lecce 2–2 AC Milan | 1.46–1.11 | 45% · 26% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Juventus 2–1 Cagliari | 2.35–0.58 | 77% · 16% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Monza 1–1 Torino | 0.96–0.95 | 34% · 32% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| Napoli 0–1 Empoli | 0.86–0.47 | 43% · 38% · 19% | Won against the xG: Empoli |
| Fiorentina 2–1 Bologna | 1.45–1.82 | 31% · 23% · 46% | Close call, Fiorentina won |
| Udinese 1–1 Atalanta | 1.52–0.74 | 56% · 26% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Udinese had 56% |
| Lazio 0–0 AS Roma | 0.41–0.44 | 24% · 51% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Inter 2–0 Frosinone | 3.21–0.70 | 85% · 10% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.