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10 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 26.7 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana 2–1 Lazio | 1.75–1.98 | 35% · 21% · 44% | Close call, Salernitana won |
| Atalanta 1–2 Napoli | 1.00–2.16 | 16% · 20% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| AC Milan 1–0 Fiorentina | 1.83–1.99 | 36% · 21% · 43% | Close call, AC Milan won |
| Cagliari 1–1 Monza | 1.61–0.72 | 59% · 25% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Cagliari had 59% |
| Empoli 3–4 Sassuolo | 1.41–2.36 | 22% · 19% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Sassuolo |
| Frosinone 2–1 Genoa | 0.63–1.30 | 18% · 29% · 53% | Won against the xG: Frosinone |
| AS Roma 3–1 Udinese | 1.39–0.51 | 59% · 28% · 14% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
| Juventus 1–1 Inter | 0.44–0.86 | 18% · 39% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hellas Verona 2–2 Lecce | 1.66–1.12 | 50% · 24% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bologna 2–0 Torino | 1.55–0.45 | 65% · 25% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.