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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 27.3 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa 1–1 Juventus | 0.82–1.67 | 18% · 24% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Juventus had 58% |
| Lecce 2–1 Frosinone | 0.66–1.73 | 14% · 23% · 63% | Won against the xG: Lecce |
| Napoli 2–1 Cagliari | 1.86–1.12 | 55% · 23% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Torino 1–0 Empoli | 1.17–0.31 | 58% · 32% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Torino |
| AC Milan 3–0 Monza | 2.03–1.58 | 48% · 21% · 30% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Fiorentina 1–0 Hellas Verona | 0.49–2.58 | 5% · 13% · 82% | Won against the xG: Fiorentina |
| Udinese 2–2 Sassuolo | 0.81–3.03 | 7% · 12% · 81% | Draw against the xG: Sassuolo had 81% |
| Bologna 2–0 AS Roma | 0.52–0.60 | 26% · 44% · 31% | Close call, Bologna won |
| Lazio 0–2 Inter | 1.49–1.62 | 35% · 24% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Atalanta 4–1 Salernitana | 1.89–1.32 | 51% · 22% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.