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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 24.5 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna 1–1 Genoa | 1.33–0.13 | 69% · 27% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Bologna had 69% |
| Inter 2–1 Hellas Verona | 1.90–1.30 | 51% · 22% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Frosinone 2–3 Monza | 1.16–1.34 | 32% · 27% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Lecce 1–1 Cagliari | 1.61–0.97 | 52% · 25% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Lecce had 52% |
| Sassuolo 1–0 Fiorentina | 0.88–1.25 | 26% · 29% · 45% | Won against the xG: Sassuolo |
| Empoli 0–3 AC Milan | 0.90–1.69 | 20% · 24% · 56% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Torino 3–0 Napoli | 2.08–1.05 | 61% · 21% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Torino |
| Udinese 1–2 Lazio | 0.75–0.49 | 38% · 41% · 22% | Won against the xG: Lazio |
| Salernitana 1–2 Juventus | 0.76–2.10 | 12% · 19% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| AS Roma 1–1 Atalanta | 2.07–0.74 | 68% · 19% · 12% | Draw against the xG: AS Roma had 68% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.