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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 24.7 xG (1.17 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salernitana 2–2 Sassuolo | 1.17–2.27 | 19% · 19% · 62% | Draw against the xG: Sassuolo had 62% |
| AC Milan 3–0 Lecce | 1.49–0.53 | 61% · 26% · 13% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| AS Roma 1–0 Lazio | 0.71–0.44 | 37% · 42% · 20% | Close call, AS Roma won |
| Empoli 3–2 Torino | 0.47–2.18 | 7% · 16% · 77% | Won against the xG: Empoli |
| Frosinone 0–0 Bologna | 0.39–1.96 | 6% · 18% · 75% | Draw against the xG: Bologna had 75% |
| Monza 2–4 Napoli | 0.40–2.20 | 5% · 16% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Cagliari 2–1 Atalanta | 0.67–0.50 | 34% · 42% · 23% | Close call, Cagliari won |
| Hellas Verona 1–2 Genoa | 1.33–2.17 | 23% · 20% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Genoa |
| Juventus 1–0 Fiorentina | 1.94–0.55 | 71% · 20% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Udinese 1–2 Inter | 0.06–3.31 | 0% · 4% · 96% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.