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10 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 30.4 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone 0–5 Inter | 1.30–1.80 | 28% · 23% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Napoli 0–2 Bologna | 1.57–1.45 | 41% · 24% · 35% | Close call, Bologna won |
| AC Milan 5–1 Cagliari | 3.30–1.50 | 72% · 14% · 14% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Lazio 2–0 Empoli | 1.72–1.32 | 47% · 24% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Lazio |
| Genoa 2–1 Sassuolo | 0.89–1.71 | 19% · 24% · 57% | Won against the xG: Genoa |
| Hellas Verona 1–2 Torino | 1.25–0.47 | 56% · 30% · 14% | Won against the xG: Torino |
| Juventus 1–1 Salernitana | 2.30–0.78 | 72% · 17% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Juventus had 72% |
| Atalanta 2–1 AS Roma | 2.85–1.21 | 71% · 15% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Lecce 0–2 Udinese | 0.37–1.46 | 9% · 26% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Udinese |
| Fiorentina 2–1 Monza | 2.51–0.67 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Fiorentina |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.