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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 23.4 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina 2–2 Napoli | 0.64–1.19 | 20% · 31% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Lecce 0–2 Atalanta | 1.31–1.59 | 32% · 25% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Torino 3–1 AC Milan | 0.94–1.96 | 17% · 21% · 61% | Won against the xG: Torino |
| Sassuolo 0–2 Cagliari | 0.27–1.48 | 6% · 25% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Cagliari |
| Monza 0–1 Frosinone | 1.02–2.06 | 18% · 21% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Udinese 1–1 Empoli | 1.74–0.86 | 58% · 23% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Udinese had 58% |
| Inter 1–1 Lazio | 1.46–0.62 | 58% · 27% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Inter had 58% |
| AS Roma 1–0 Genoa | 0.83–0.50 | 41% · 39% · 21% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
| Salernitana 1–2 Hellas Verona | 0.59–2.15 | 9% · 18% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Hellas Verona |
| Bologna 3–3 Juventus | 1.50–0.73 | 56% · 26% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Bologna had 56% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.