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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 28.0 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli 0–0 Udinese | 1.27–0.73 | 49% · 29% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Lecce 1–1 Sassuolo | 1.72–1.70 | 39% · 23% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Inter 2–2 Bologna | 0.72–1.32 | 20% · 29% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Bologna had 51% |
| Juventus 2–0 Torino | 1.91–0.56 | 70% · 20% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Genoa 0–1 AC Milan | 0.56–0.64 | 27% · 42% · 32% | Close call, AC Milan won |
| Monza 3–0 Salernitana | 2.98–0.58 | 85% · 10% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Frosinone 2–1 Hellas Verona | 1.77–0.85 | 59% · 23% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Lazio 3–2 Atalanta | 1.57–0.98 | 51% · 25% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Lazio |
| Cagliari 1–4 AS Roma | 1.71–2.58 | 25% · 18% · 57% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
| Napoli 1–3 Fiorentina | 1.75–2.07 | 33% · 21% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Fiorentina |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.