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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 21.3 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo 2–1 Cagliari | 0.51–1.63 | 11% · 24% · 65% | Won against the xG: Sassuolo |
| Hellas Verona 0–1 Fiorentina | 0.99–0.36 | 51% · 36% · 13% | Won against the xG: Fiorentina |
| Lazio 1–1 Parma | 0.40–0.32 | 25% · 55% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cremonese 1–2 Bologna | 1.42–1.14 | 43% · 26% · 30% | Close call, Bologna won |
| Pisa 0–1 Torino | 0.32–1.83 | 6% · 20% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Torino |
| Inter 5–2 AS Roma | 1.51–0.96 | 50% · 26% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Udinese 0–0 Como | 0.94–0.67 | 40% · 35% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Lecce 0–3 Atalanta | 0.44–2.78 | 4% · 11% · 86% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Juventus 2–0 Genoa | 2.23–1.42 | 56% · 20% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Napoli 1–0 AC Milan | 0.80–0.60 | 37% · 38% · 25% | Close call, Napoli won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.