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6 of 10 matches with xG: 15 goals from 18.2 xG (0.83 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara 1–1 Avellino | 1.94–2.16 | 36% · 20% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Empoli 1–1 Sampdoria | 0.96–1.70 | 21% · 24% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Sampdoria had 55% |
| Palermo 0–3 Monza | 1.08–2.27 | 17% · 19% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Reggiana 1–0 Modena | 0.56–1.01 | 20% · 34% · 46% | Won against the xG: Reggiana |
| Cesena 2–1 Carrarese | 1.66–0.87 | 56% · 24% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Cesena |
| Frosinone 4–0 Virtus Entella | 3.27–0.68 | 86% · 9% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.