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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 25.3 xG (0.91 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vicenza Virtus 3–2 Catanzaro | 1.77–1.74 | 39% · 22% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Vicenza Virtus |
| Carrarese 1–2 Mantova | 0.86–1.17 | 27% · 30% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Mantova |
| Sudtirol 1–0 Virtus Entella | 0.97–0.56 | 44% · 35% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Sudtirol |
| Avellino 1–2 Arezzo | 0.69–1.51 | 17% · 26% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Arezzo |
| Benevento 1–2 Modena | 1.00–1.44 | 26% · 27% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Modena |
| Empoli 1–0 Cremonese | 1.04–0.82 | 40% · 32% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Empoli |
| Pisa 0–1 Padova | 1.63–1.23 | 47% · 24% · 29% | Won against the xG: Padova |
| Hellas Verona 1–2 Ascoli | 3.00–1.17 | 74% · 14% · 12% | Won against the xG: Ascoli |
| Cesena 1–1 Sampdoria | 1.49–0.99 | 49% · 26% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Palermo 1–0 Juve Stabia | 1.21–1.04 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.