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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 24.4 xG (1.23 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese 0–3 Modena | 0.39–0.68 | 18% · 44% · 38% | Close call, Modena won |
| Virtus Entella 1–2 Cesena | 0.67–0.47 | 35% · 43% · 22% | Close call, Cesena won |
| Sampdoria 1–2 Juve Stabia | 1.42–0.90 | 49% · 27% · 24% | Won against the xG: Juve Stabia |
| Ascoli 1–1 Carrarese | 1.70–1.81 | 37% · 22% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Avellino 3–0 Vicenza Virtus | 1.56–1.33 | 43% · 25% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Avellino |
| Padova 1–1 Hellas Verona | 0.94–1.62 | 22% · 25% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Hellas Verona had 53% |
| Arezzo 2–3 Palermo | 1.18–2.01 | 22% · 21% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Palermo |
| Mantova 3–1 Empoli | 1.28–0.46 | 57% · 30% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Mantova |
| Benevento 1–1 Sudtirol | 2.23–0.56 | 76% · 17% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Benevento had 76% |
| Pisa 2–1 Catanzaro | 2.04–1.11 | 59% · 21% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Pisa |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.