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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 25.1 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sudtirol 2–0 Catanzaro | 0.41–0.61 | 20% · 46% · 34% | Close call, Sudtirol won |
| Ascoli 1–0 Benevento | 2.37–0.07 | 89% · 10% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Ascoli |
| Carrarese 0–1 Empoli | 0.77–0.70 | 33% · 37% · 29% | Close call, Empoli won |
| Cesena 1–1 Mantova | 1.68–0.69 | 61% · 24% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Cesena had 61% |
| Virtus Entella 2–2 Vicenza Virtus | 0.94–1.50 | 24% · 26% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Vicenza Virtus had 50% |
| Juve Stabia 0–3 Pisa | 0.96–1.69 | 21% · 24% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Pisa |
| Modena 0–1 Avellino | 1.91–0.46 | 72% · 20% · 8% | Won against the xG: Avellino |
| Hellas Verona 5–0 Arezzo | 3.15–0.12 | 94% · 5% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Hellas Verona |
| Cremonese 3–1 Padova | 2.46–1.30 | 63% · 18% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Cremonese |
| Palermo 3–1 Sampdoria | 1.60–1.70 | 36% · 23% · 41% | Close call, Palermo won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.