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10 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 24.4 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli 0–1 Arezzo | 0.48–1.08 | 16% · 33% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Arezzo |
| Benevento 3–1 Hellas Verona | 1.13–1.44 | 30% · 26% · 44% | Close call, Benevento won |
| Pisa 1–4 Virtus Entella | 1.08–1.71 | 24% · 24% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Virtus Entella |
| Vicenza Virtus 1–1 Juve Stabia | 0.57–1.50 | 14% · 26% · 60% | Draw against the xG: Juve Stabia had 60% |
| Padova 1–0 Ascoli | 0.98–2.04 | 17% · 21% · 62% | Won against the xG: Padova |
| Sudtirol 1–1 Modena | 0.73–0.95 | 27% · 34% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Catanzaro 1–0 Carrarese | 2.44–0.57 | 79% · 15% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Catanzaro |
| Cesena 2–2 Cremonese | 1.15–1.23 | 34% · 28% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Avellino 1–1 Palermo | 1.87–0.55 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Avellino had 69% |
| Mantova 2–0 Sampdoria | 1.13–1.75 | 25% · 24% · 52% | Won against the xG: Mantova |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.