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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 30.8 xG (0.94 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consadole Sapporo 3–3 Shonan Bellmare | 0.93–3.26 | 7% · 11% · 82% | Draw against the xG: Shonan Bellmare had 82% |
| Albirex Niigata 1–3 FC Tokyo | 1.08–1.09 | 35% · 29% · 36% | Win in line with xG for FC Tokyo |
| Jubilo Iwata 2–0 Machida Zelvia | 1.69–1.26 | 47% · 24% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Jubilo Iwata |
| Vissel Kobe 0–1 Kyoto Sanga | 2.84–0.63 | 83% · 12% · 6% | Won against the xG: Kyoto Sanga |
| Cerezo Osaka 2–2 Yokohama F. Marinos | 2.32–0.85 | 70% · 18% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Cerezo Osaka had 70% |
| Tokyo Verdy 0–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 0.95–1.02 | 33% · 31% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–2 Kawasaki Frontale | 2.90–1.83 | 60% · 17% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 60% |
| Urawa 2–1 Nagoya Grampus | 1.57–1.67 | 36% · 23% · 41% | Close call, Urawa won |
| Kashiwa Reysol 1–1 Sagan Tosu | 2.29–0.41 | 80% · 15% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Kashiwa Reysol had 80% |
| Gamba Osaka 1–2 Kashima | 0.58–1.65 | 13% · 24% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.