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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 31.1 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sagan Tosu 0–1 FC Tokyo | 1.19–0.98 | 41% · 29% · 30% | Close call, FC Tokyo won |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 Jubilo Iwata | 1.89–0.29 | 77% · 18% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Kashima 3–2 Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.36–2.12 | 24% · 21% · 55% | Won against the xG: Kashima |
| Machida Zelvia 1–3 Albirex Niigata | 2.30–1.21 | 62% · 19% · 19% | Won against the xG: Albirex Niigata |
| Shonan Bellmare 1–2 Gamba Osaka | 1.46–1.03 | 47% · 26% · 27% | Won against the xG: Gamba Osaka |
| Urawa 1–1 Vissel Kobe | 1.21–1.16 | 37% · 28% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kyoto Sanga 1–1 Cerezo Osaka | 2.35–1.09 | 65% · 18% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Kyoto Sanga had 65% |
| Tokyo Verdy 5–3 Consadole Sapporo | 2.48–1.18 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Tokyo Verdy |
| Kawasaki Frontale 2–1 Nagoya Grampus | 2.70–3.81 | 26% · 15% · 59% | Won against the xG: Kawasaki Frontale |
| Kashiwa Reysol 0–2 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.00–0.27 | 54% · 36% · 10% | Won against the xG: Avispa Fukuoka |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.