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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 29.8 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale 4–5 Jubilo Iwata | 3.51–1.97 | 67% · 14% · 19% | Won against the xG: Jubilo Iwata |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 0–1 Avispa Fukuoka | 3.08–0.92 | 80% · 12% · 8% | Won against the xG: Avispa Fukuoka |
| Vissel Kobe 0–1 Kashiwa Reysol | 0.86–0.70 | 37% · 36% · 28% | Close call, Kashiwa Reysol won |
| Nagoya Grampus 0–1 Machida Zelvia | 0.36–2.53 | 4% · 12% · 85% | Win in line with xG for Machida Zelvia |
| Kyoto Sanga 1–2 Shonan Bellmare | 1.09–1.43 | 29% · 26% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Shonan Bellmare |
| Sagan Tosu 4–0 Consadole Sapporo | 1.77–1.85 | 37% · 22% · 41% | Close call, Sagan Tosu won |
| Kashima 1–1 Cerezo Osaka | 1.13–1.84 | 23% · 23% · 54% | Draw against the xG: Cerezo Osaka had 54% |
| FC Tokyo 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.05–2.19 | 17% · 20% · 63% | Draw against the xG: Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 63% |
| Gamba Osaka 1–0 Albirex Niigata | 1.29–0.13 | 68% · 28% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Urawa 1–1 Tokyo Verdy | 1.40–0.65 | 55% · 28% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Urawa had 55% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.