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10 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 26.7 xG (0.79 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consadole Sapporo 2–2 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.25–1.80 | 27% · 23% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Avispa Fukuoka had 50% |
| Machida Zelvia 0–1 Shonan Bellmare | 0.15–0.86 | 6% · 41% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Shonan Bellmare |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 Cerezo Osaka | 1.74–0.96 | 56% · 24% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Kashiwa Reysol 0–0 Gamba Osaka | 1.49–1.27 | 42% · 25% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Tokyo 0–3 Kawasaki Frontale | 2.08–1.17 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Won against the xG: Kawasaki Frontale |
| Jubilo Iwata 2–1 Kashima | 1.30–1.07 | 42% · 28% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Jubilo Iwata |
| Nagoya Grampus 1–0 Tokyo Verdy | 0.62–0.59 | 30% · 42% · 28% | Close call, Nagoya Grampus won |
| Sagan Tosu 1–1 Urawa | 2.51–1.56 | 58% · 19% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Sagan Tosu had 58% |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 1–2 Vissel Kobe | 1.18–2.34 | 18% · 19% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Albirex Niigata 2–0 Kyoto Sanga | 1.49–1.28 | 42% · 25% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Albirex Niigata |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.