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10 of 10 matches with xG: 35 goals from 33.7 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consadole Sapporo 5–3 Sagan Tosu | 2.15–1.55 | 51% · 21% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Consadole Sapporo |
| Kashima 0–0 Urawa | 1.08–1.41 | 29% · 27% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Machida Zelvia 4–0 Jubilo Iwata | 3.04–0.84 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Machida Zelvia |
| FC Tokyo 0–0 Tokyo Verdy | 0.29–0.83 | 12% · 41% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kawasaki Frontale 1–3 Yokohama F. Marinos | 3.26–1.74 | 67% · 15% · 18% | Won against the xG: Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Shonan Bellmare 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol | 2.52–1.22 | 66% · 18% · 17% | Won against the xG: Kashiwa Reysol |
| Nagoya Grampus 1–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0.62–1.80 | 12% · 22% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Cerezo Osaka 3–5 Kyoto Sanga | 2.34–3.51 | 24% · 15% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Kyoto Sanga |
| Vissel Kobe 2–2 Gamba Osaka | 2.11–0.84 | 67% · 20% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Vissel Kobe had 67% |
| Avispa Fukuoka 0–1 Albirex Niigata | 0.48–2.11 | 7% · 17% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Albirex Niigata |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.