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9 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 21.5 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka 2–2 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.68–1.64 | 39% · 23% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 4–0 Cerezo Osaka | 2.61–0.87 | 75% · 15% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Shonan Bellmare 0–1 Nagoya Grampus | 1.42–0.74 | 53% · 27% · 20% | Won against the xG: Nagoya Grampus |
| Kyoto Sanga 3–0 FC Tokyo | 1.40–0.73 | 53% · 28% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Kyoto Sanga |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 Kashiwa Reysol | 1.65–1.12 | 50% · 24% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Albirex Niigata 0–0 Machida Zelvia | 0.26–0.55 | 14% · 51% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Jubilo Iwata 0–2 Consadole Sapporo | 0.77–1.50 | 19% · 26% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Consadole Sapporo |
| Vissel Kobe 2–0 Sagan Tosu | 1.77–0.55 | 67% · 22% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Urawa 1–1 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.29–0.91 | 45% · 28% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.