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9 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 31.5 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia 2–2 Urawa | 2.96–0.60 | 85% · 11% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Machida Zelvia had 85% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3–2 FC Tokyo | 2.17–0.53 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Kashiwa Reysol 2–3 Tokyo Verdy | 1.45–0.56 | 59% · 27% · 14% | Won against the xG: Tokyo Verdy |
| Sagan Tosu 1–2 Shonan Bellmare | 1.14–2.27 | 18% · 19% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Shonan Bellmare |
| Consadole Sapporo 2–0 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.85–1.52 | 46% · 22% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Consadole Sapporo |
| Avispa Fukuoka 0–2 Vissel Kobe | 0.97–2.11 | 16% · 20% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Nagoya Grampus 3–0 Albirex Niigata | 1.53–3.33 | 14% · 14% · 72% | Won against the xG: Nagoya Grampus |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–0 Gamba Osaka | 1.62–0.35 | 69% · 23% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Cerezo Osaka |
| Jubilo Iwata 3–4 Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.61–4.97 | 6% · 7% · 87% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.