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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 24.5 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima 0–0 Kashiwa Reysol | 0.71–0.47 | 37% · 42% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Urawa 0–2 FC Tokyo | 0.70–1.19 | 22% · 31% · 48% | Win in line with xG for FC Tokyo |
| Machida Zelvia 0–0 Consadole Sapporo | 1.19–0.21 | 62% · 31% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Machida Zelvia had 62% |
| Jubilo Iwata 0–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.21–0.15 | 65% · 31% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Jubilo Iwata had 65% |
| Nagoya Grampus 2–0 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.01–1.26 | 30% · 28% · 42% | Close call, Nagoya Grampus won |
| Tokyo Verdy 2–0 Sagan Tosu | 0.75–1.12 | 24% · 31% · 44% | Won against the xG: Tokyo Verdy |
| Albirex Niigata 2–3 Vissel Kobe | 0.59–1.78 | 12% · 22% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 6–2 Yokohama F. Marinos | 2.72–0.93 | 75% · 15% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Shonan Bellmare 1–2 Cerezo Osaka | 2.00–2.76 | 28% · 18% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Cerezo Osaka |
| Kyoto Sanga 2–2 Gamba Osaka | 1.24–2.48 | 18% · 18% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Gamba Osaka had 64% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.