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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 30.1 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–3 FC Tokyo | 1.45–1.22 | 42% · 26% · 32% | Close call, FC Tokyo won |
| Consadole Sapporo 1–2 Machida Zelvia | 1.12–0.91 | 40% · 30% · 29% | Close call, Machida Zelvia won |
| Vissel Kobe 0–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.00–0.50 | 47% · 35% · 18% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kashiwa Reysol 0–2 Nagoya Grampus | 1.67–1.79 | 36% · 22% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Nagoya Grampus |
| Gamba Osaka 2–1 Jubilo Iwata | 2.21–1.45 | 55% · 20% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Sagan Tosu 0–2 Cerezo Osaka | 0.85–0.80 | 34% · 35% · 31% | Close call, Cerezo Osaka won |
| Tokyo Verdy 2–2 Albirex Niigata | 0.81–1.06 | 27% · 32% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kyoto Sanga 2–3 Yokohama F. Marinos | 2.59–2.97 | 35% · 17% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Kashima 2–1 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.84–0.63 | 66% · 21% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Shonan Bellmare 4–4 Urawa | 2.47–2.78 | 36% · 18% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.