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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 22.5 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo 0–2 Shimizu S-pulse | 1.20–0.96 | 41% · 29% · 29% | Close call, Shimizu S-pulse won |
| Yokohama FC 0–3 Kashima | 0.70–2.64 | 8% · 14% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Nagoya Grampus 1–2 Kashiwa Reysol | 0.55–0.56 | 28% · 44% · 28% | Close call, Kashiwa Reysol won |
| Fagiano Okayama 0–1 Tokyo Verdy | 0.96–1.70 | 21% · 24% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Tokyo Verdy |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–1 Albirex Niigata | 0.60–0.64 | 28% · 41% · 31% | Close call, Albirex Niigata won |
| Shonan Bellmare 0–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 0.59–1.23 | 18% · 30% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Avispa Fukuoka had 52% |
| Gamba Osaka 2–1 Kyoto Sanga | 1.17–1.14 | 37% · 28% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Machida Zelvia | 1.00–1.60 | 24% · 25% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Machida Zelvia |
| Kawasaki Frontale 2–2 Urawa | 1.48–1.42 | 39% · 25% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 1–2 Vissel Kobe | 1.57–0.77 | 56% · 25% · 18% | Won against the xG: Vissel Kobe |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.