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10 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 27.8 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia 3–0 Kashiwa Reysol | 2.86–0.44 | 86% · 10% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Machida Zelvia |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 0–3 Kyoto Sanga | 0.59–1.52 | 14% · 26% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Kyoto Sanga |
| Vissel Kobe 3–2 Gamba Osaka | 1.71–0.79 | 59% · 24% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1 Tokyo Verdy | 0.98–0.85 | 37% · 32% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–1 Nagoya Grampus | 0.64–1.38 | 17% · 28% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Nagoya Grampus had 55% |
| Kashima 1–0 Shimizu S-pulse | 0.73–1.11 | 24% · 32% · 44% | Won against the xG: Kashima |
| Shonan Bellmare 0–1 Yokohama FC | 0.67–1.93 | 12% · 21% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama FC |
| Urawa 3–2 FC Tokyo | 2.71–2.36 | 47% · 18% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Urawa |
| Kawasaki Frontale 2–0 Cerezo Osaka | 2.02–0.73 | 68% · 20% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Kawasaki Frontale |
| Fagiano Okayama 2–1 Albirex Niigata | 3.16–0.65 | 86% · 10% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Fagiano Okayama |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.