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9 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 24.3 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.91–1.05 | 57% · 22% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Cerezo Osaka |
| Nagoya Grampus 2–1 Urawa | 4.41–0.30 | 97% · 3% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Nagoya Grampus |
| Fagiano Okayama 2–2 Machida Zelvia | 0.89–0.85 | 34% · 34% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Yokohama FC 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol | 1.26–1.64 | 29% · 24% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Albirex Niigata 2–1 Shonan Bellmare | 1.22–0.74 | 48% · 30% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Albirex Niigata |
| Shimizu S-pulse 3–2 Vissel Kobe | 1.86–2.11 | 35% · 21% · 45% | Close call, Shimizu S-pulse won |
| FC Tokyo 0–3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0.40–2.13 | 6% · 16% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Tokyo Verdy 1–0 Kyoto Sanga | 0.39–0.58 | 20% · 47% · 33% | Close call, Tokyo Verdy won |
| Kawasaki Frontale 2–2 Gamba Osaka | 1.66–0.90 | 55% · 24% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Kawasaki Frontale had 55% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.