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5 of 10 matches with xG: 17 goals from 15.8 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol 4–2 Urawa | 2.94–1.08 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Kashiwa Reysol |
| Avispa Fukuoka 0–0 Shimizu S-pulse | 1.25–0.58 | 53% · 30% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Avispa Fukuoka had 53% |
| Nagoya Grampus 3–4 Kawasaki Frontale | 2.16–1.61 | 50% · 21% · 29% | Won against the xG: Kawasaki Frontale |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 0–0 Machida Zelvia | 0.54–0.65 | 25% · 42% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Tokyo 0–4 Kyoto Sanga | 2.18–2.77 | 31% · 18% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Kyoto Sanga |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.