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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 32.6 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama FC 0–0 Tokyo Verdy | 0.61–0.10 | 42% · 52% · 5% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kyoto Sanga 5–0 Fagiano Okayama | 2.56–0.66 | 78% · 14% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Kyoto Sanga |
| Vissel Kobe 1–0 Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.34–0.45 | 59% · 28% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Kashima | 1.70–2.00 | 33% · 21% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Urawa 1–0 Albirex Niigata | 0.81–1.69 | 18% · 24% · 58% | Won against the xG: Urawa |
| Kashiwa Reysol 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka | 3.49–0.97 | 84% · 10% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Kashiwa Reysol |
| Kawasaki Frontale 5–3 Machida Zelvia | 2.29–2.48 | 37% · 19% · 44% | Close call, Kawasaki Frontale won |
| Shonan Bellmare 4–5 Gamba Osaka | 1.69–3.64 | 14% · 13% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Nagoya Grampus 1–1 FC Tokyo | 1.58–1.76 | 35% · 23% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.96–0.79 | 65% · 21% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Cerezo Osaka had 65% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.