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10 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 25.7 xG (0.78 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia 1–1 Yokohama FC | 1.82–0.63 | 66% · 22% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Machida Zelvia had 66% |
| Vissel Kobe 0–0 Kashiwa Reysol | 0.44–0.72 | 20% · 42% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–1 Kyoto Sanga | 2.24–0.48 | 78% · 16% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 78% |
| Avispa Fukuoka 2–4 Cerezo Osaka | 1.87–3.38 | 19% · 15% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Cerezo Osaka |
| Fagiano Okayama 0–1 Nagoya Grampus | 0.66–0.85 | 26% · 36% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Nagoya Grampus |
| Kashima 3–0 Shonan Bellmare | 1.41–1.28 | 40% · 26% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 0–3 Kawasaki Frontale | 0.48–2.18 | 7% · 16% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Kawasaki Frontale |
| Albirex Niigata 0–1 Shimizu S-pulse | 1.65–1.07 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Won against the xG: Shimizu S-pulse |
| Gamba Osaka 1–0 Urawa | 2.36–0.91 | 70% · 18% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| FC Tokyo 1–0 Tokyo Verdy | 0.69–0.56 | 34% · 41% · 26% | Close call, FC Tokyo won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.