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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 29.6 xG (0.78 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–1 Vissel Kobe | 1.09–1.17 | 34% · 29% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
| Machida Zelvia 3–1 Gamba Osaka | 2.76–1.65 | 61% · 17% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Machida Zelvia |
| Nagoya Grampus 3–1 Shonan Bellmare | 1.99–3.29 | 21% · 15% · 63% | Won against the xG: Nagoya Grampus |
| Tokyo Verdy 4–2 Fagiano Okayama | 1.49–1.03 | 48% · 26% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Tokyo Verdy |
| Yokohama FC 1–0 Albirex Niigata | 2.08–0.38 | 78% · 17% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama FC |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol | 1.80–0.86 | 60% · 23% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Cerezo Osaka had 60% |
| Urawa 0–1 Kashima | 1.54–0.90 | 52% · 26% · 22% | Won against the xG: Kashima |
| Kawasaki Frontale 0–1 FC Tokyo | 0.79–1.81 | 16% · 23% · 62% | Win in line with xG for FC Tokyo |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.63–0.82 | 57% · 25% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Kyoto Sanga 0–1 Shimizu S-pulse | 1.36–1.20 | 41% · 27% · 33% | Close call, Shimizu S-pulse won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.