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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 29.1 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka 1–2 Avispa Fukuoka | 1.31–0.60 | 54% · 29% · 17% | Won against the xG: Avispa Fukuoka |
| Mito Hollyhock 0–1 Tokyo Verdy | 0.78–0.75 | 33% · 36% · 31% | Close call, Tokyo Verdy won |
| Urawa 0–0 FC Tokyo | 0.43–1.86 | 8% · 20% · 72% | Draw against the xG: FC Tokyo had 72% |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 0–1 Kashiwa Reysol | 1.11–0.66 | 46% · 32% · 22% | Won against the xG: Kashiwa Reysol |
| V-varen Nagasaki 2–2 Vissel Kobe | 2.06–3.45 | 21% · 15% · 65% | Draw against the xG: Vissel Kobe had 65% |
| JEF United Chiba 0–2 Kashima | 0.62–2.14 | 9% · 18% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Shimizu S-pulse | 1.18–1.04 | 39% · 29% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Fagiano Okayama |
| Cerezo Osaka 6–1 Nagoya Grampus | 2.82–2.05 | 55% · 18% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Cerezo Osaka |
| Kyoto Sanga 0–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0.18–2.61 | 2% · 9% · 89% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Kawasaki Frontale 1–1 Machida Zelvia | 2.98–0.46 | 87% · 9% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Kawasaki Frontale had 87% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.