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4 of 5 matches with xG: 13 goals from 14.2 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums 0–2 Riga | 0.79–2.97 | 7% · 12% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Riga |
| Super Nova 2–1 Grobiņa | 1.57–2.45 | 24% · 19% · 57% | Won against the xG: Super Nova |
| Ogre United 1–2 BFC Daugavpils | 1.78–1.55 | 43% · 23% · 34% | Close call, BFC Daugavpils won |
| FK Liepaja 2–3 Auda | 1.19–1.90 | 24% · 22% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Auda |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.