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9 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 32.7 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag 1–2 Cambuur | 3.04–1.13 | 76% · 14% · 11% | Won against the xG: Cambuur |
| Helmond Sport 2–2 Vitesse | 0.98–1.84 | 20% · 23% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Vitesse had 58% |
| VVV Venlo 1–3 Jong AZ | 2.94–1.35 | 70% · 15% · 15% | Won against the xG: Jong AZ |
| Den Bosch 1–2 MVV | 1.87–1.37 | 49% · 23% · 28% | Won against the xG: MVV |
| Almere City FC 2–0 De Graafschap | 2.53–1.29 | 64% · 18% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Almere City FC |
| Waalwijk 1–1 Dordrecht | 1.50–1.08 | 47% · 26% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Eindhoven 0–2 Willem II | 1.42–2.72 | 18% · 17% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Willem II |
| Jong Ajax 2–2 Roda | 0.43–2.50 | 5% · 13% · 83% | Draw against the xG: Roda had 83% |
| Jong Utrecht 5–3 Jong PSV U21 | 1.69–3.03 | 19% · 16% · 65% | Won against the xG: Jong Utrecht |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.