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9 of 10 matches with xG: 35 goals from 32.1 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap 2–4 Waalwijk | 1.13–1.94 | 22% · 22% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Waalwijk |
| Dordrecht 3–2 Den Bosch | 2.19–0.79 | 69% · 18% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Dordrecht |
| MVV 2–2 Jong Utrecht | 2.00–3.30 | 21% · 15% · 63% | Draw against the xG: Jong Utrecht had 63% |
| Roda 1–2 FC OSS | 1.18–1.91 | 23% · 22% · 54% | Win in line with xG for FC OSS |
| Vitesse 2–1 ADO Den Haag | 0.95–2.15 | 16% · 20% · 65% | Won against the xG: Vitesse |
| Willem II 2–1 VVV Venlo | 2.28–1.49 | 55% · 20% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Willem II |
| Jong AZ 3–4 Almere City FC | 1.85–2.79 | 25% · 18% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Almere City FC |
| Jong PSV U21 4–0 Helmond Sport | 3.15–0.88 | 82% · 11% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Jong PSV U21 |
| Emmen 0–0 Jong Ajax | 0.95–1.19 | 29% · 29% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.