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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 32.0 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht 1–1 MVV | 2.13–0.80 | 68% · 19% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Dordrecht had 68% |
| FC Eindhoven 2–1 Jong Ajax | 2.11–0.85 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Win in line with xG for FC Eindhoven |
| Helmond Sport 1–1 FC OSS | 0.76–1.50 | 19% · 26% · 55% | Draw against the xG: FC OSS had 55% |
| Roda 0–2 Jong PSV U21 | 1.21–2.01 | 23% · 21% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Jong PSV U21 |
| VVV Venlo 0–3 Waalwijk | 0.60–2.95 | 5% · 11% · 84% | Win in line with xG for Waalwijk |
| Almere City FC 1–0 ADO Den Haag | 1.46–0.67 | 56% · 27% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Almere City FC |
| De Graafschap 1–4 Vitesse | 4.38–1.10 | 89% · 7% · 4% | Won against the xG: Vitesse |
| Willem II 1–1 Den Bosch | 1.31–1.83 | 27% · 23% · 50% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cambuur 1–0 Jong Utrecht | 1.33–1.41 | 35% · 26% · 39% | Close call, Cambuur won |
| Jong AZ 2–3 Emmen | 2.05–1.51 | 50% · 21% · 28% | Won against the xG: Emmen |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.