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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 30.7 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur 1–1 Roda | 1.99–1.65 | 46% · 22% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Emmen 0–1 ADO Den Haag | 0.38–2.33 | 5% · 14% · 81% | Win in line with xG for ADO Den Haag |
| Jong Ajax 3–2 Den Bosch | 1.84–2.13 | 34% · 21% · 45% | Close call, Jong Ajax won |
| Jong PSV U21 1–2 FC Eindhoven | 0.60–1.74 | 12% · 23% · 65% | Win in line with xG for FC Eindhoven |
| Jong Utrecht 1–0 Helmond Sport | 0.86–0.45 | 43% · 38% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Jong Utrecht |
| MVV 2–1 VVV Venlo | 2.44–1.65 | 55% · 19% · 26% | Win in line with xG for MVV |
| FC OSS 1–3 Willem II | 0.84–2.45 | 11% · 16% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Willem II |
| Vitesse 1–3 Almere City FC | 1.97–0.98 | 60% · 21% · 18% | Won against the xG: Almere City FC |
| Waalwijk 2–1 Jong AZ | 1.65–0.78 | 58% · 24% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Waalwijk |
| De Graafschap 2–1 Dordrecht | 1.90–2.03 | 37% · 21% · 42% | Close call, De Graafschap won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.