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9 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 27.8 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmen 2–2 VVV Venlo | 1.13–2.57 | 15% · 17% · 68% | Draw against the xG: VVV Venlo had 68% |
| Jong Ajax 0–2 Almere City FC | 0.64–1.60 | 15% · 25% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Almere City FC |
| Jong PSV U21 0–2 Vitesse | 1.23–1.42 | 33% · 26% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Vitesse |
| Jong Utrecht 3–1 Dordrecht | 1.92–1.93 | 39% · 21% · 40% | Close call, Jong Utrecht won |
| Roda 1–1 Helmond Sport | 1.35–0.98 | 45% · 28% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Waalwijk 2–3 Den Bosch | 1.41–1.87 | 29% · 22% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Den Bosch |
| De Graafschap 1–2 ADO Den Haag | 1.21–1.02 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Close call, ADO Den Haag won |
| MVV 0–5 Willem II | 1.74–1.94 | 35% · 22% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Willem II |
| FC Eindhoven 1–0 Emmen | 2.07–1.77 | 45% · 21% · 34% | Win in line with xG for FC Eindhoven |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.